Mount Allison math and computer science professor Andrew Irwin and a team of international researchers are working to predict how the Antarctic ecosystem will respond to drastic climate change in the near future. The NASA-funded study, valued at $750,000, centres around using statistical models to connect satellite data to observations of penguin foraging patterns, temperature, sea ice and other variables.
Much of the prior data used to make these discoveries has been gathered using oceanographic cruises and detailed observations on site made by scientists. On-site research continues to be expensive and has limited reach. Irwin and his team are attempting to use two NASA remote sensing technologies, which have global reach, to capture the data. First, satellite remote sensing is possible for many observations including ice cover, sea-surface temperature, and chlorophyll concentration in the water. Second, under-water robot gliders can observe temperature, salinity, and phytoplankton activity.
This study comes as the result of findings from a long-term observation of documented rapid environmental change at the northern edge of Antarctica on the West Antarctic Peninsula. Records of surface air temperatures document a temperature change of 6°C over the last 50 years on the West Antarctic Peninsula — a figure unheard of anywhere else. The perennial sea ice has vanished and the length of time coastal waters are covered in ice has shrunk by 90 days. Scientists say this can be explained by the rapid climate change, along with noticeable complex changes in ocean circulation and patterns of prevailing winds.
Conservation implications
Fifty years ago the climate at Palmer Station, Antarctica’s only US station north of the Antarctic Circle, was polar and the abundant ice favoured large colonies of Adélie penguins. Today, those penguins are almost completely absent from the waters around the station as they depend on sea ice cover for foraging and breeding. The population size of Adélie penguins at Palmer Station has decreased by 90 per cent and they are now found further south in colder habitats. In their place there are Chinstrap and Gentoo penguins, which have different niches, and were previously unknown to this site.
