New Brunswick Liberals’ lead narrows midway through 2018 election campaign

HALIFAX, N.S. – With just under two weeks remaining in the 2018 provincial election campaign, the New Brunswick Liberal Party’s lead in voter support has narrowed, as compared to pre-campaign results, according to the most recent survey conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc.

Specifically, just under one-half of New Brunswick decided and leaning voters support the Liberals (45 per cent, compared with 50 per cent of leaning and decided voters prior to the 2018 election campaign). Meanwhile, one-third of decided and leaning voters back the PC Party (33 per cent, compared with 30 per cent), and one in 10 support the Green Party (10 per cent, compared with seven per cent). Preference for the New Democratic Party rests at six percent (compared with seven per cent), while five percent of decided and leaning voters back the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick (compared with six per cent).

At a glance:

• Two weeks prior to the provincial election, the gap between the Liberals and the PC Party has narrowed in terms of voter support.
• Just under one-half of New Brunswick decided and leaning voters support the Liberal Party, while one-third prefer the PC Party.
• The Liberals have a wide lead in Northern New Brunswick, while voter support is more evenly split between the Liberals and the PCs in Southern New Brunswick and in the Moncton area.

Of note, Liberals hold a wide lead over the PC Party in Northern New Brunswick, while voter support is more evenly split between the Liberals and the PCs in Southern New Brunswick and in the Moncton area.

The number of residents who are undecided rests at 13 per cent (compared with 14 per cent), while three per cent refuse to state a preference (compared with six per cent), and seven percent either support none of the parties or do not plan to vote (compared with five per cent).

“The election has narrowed significantly since the start of the campaign and is now likely to be a close race despite the apparent comfortable lead by the Liberals in overall voting intentions. This is a consequence of the disproportionate support that the Liberals have in Northern New Brunswick, which skews the voter intention numbers provincially,” said Don Mills, chairman and CEO of Corporate Research Associates Inc. “Indeed, the outcome of the election will largely be determined by voters in the southeastern portion of the province where the race is currently tight.”

These results are part of the CRA Atlantic Quarterly®, an independent telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 519 adult New Brunswickers, conducted from Aug. 23 to Sept. 9, 2018, with overall results accurate to within ± 4.3 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times.

About Corporate Research Associates

Corporate Research Associates is one of Canada’s leading public opinion and market research companies. Founded in 1978, CRA is dedicated to providing clients with state-of-the-art research and strategic consulting services.